Volume 3, Issue 2, June 2018, Page: 18-30
Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province
Zhao Xiuyan, College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, China
Zhou Pengchao, School of Surveying and Urban Spatial Information, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan, China
Yang Yongfang, College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, China
Received: Aug. 23, 2018;       Accepted: Sep. 11, 2018;       Published: Oct. 12, 2018
DOI: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12      View  1137      Downloads  178
Abstract
With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.
Keywords
Henan Province, Data Envelope Analysis, Coordinated, Logistic Prediction
To cite this article
Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang, Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province, American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics. Vol. 3, No. 2, 2018, pp. 18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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